Britain's Strategic Limbo

The UK is the country with no bloc.

At Davos, Britain refused to join Trump's Board of Peace, citing commitment to international law and rejection of the "pay-to-play" model. France, Germany, Sweden, Norway made the same choice. The difference is that those countries have somewhere else to go. Britain doesn't.

The SAFE instrument, the EU's €150 billion fund for joint defense procurement, is designed explicitly for strategic autonomy. Strict "Buy European" provisions limit non-EU subcontractors to 15-35% of contract value, phased out within two years. Canada, remarkably, negotiated access and now has preferential treatment on par with EU firms. The UK remains excluded.

Talks broke down in late 2025. The EU's requirements for third-country participation, London viewed as an infringement on sovereignty. The same sovereignty concerns that drove Brexit now lock Britain out of the emerging European defense architecture. The "mid-Atlantic bridge" was always a metaphor. Britain positioned itself as the hinge between American power and European integration, useful to both, dependent on neither. That positioning assumed both poles wanted a bridge. Now the US treats allies as protection rackets and the EU is building walls around its defense industrial base. The bridge has nowhere to land.

What does the Starmer government do? The choices were supposed to be theoretical. Align with Washington and accept the transactional terms of the Donroe Doctrine. Align with Brussels and accept the sovereignty constraints of SAFE participation. Or go it alone, with a defense budget that can't sustain independent capability against peer competitors.

The IISS analysis of SAFE's implications for non-EU suppliers is blunt: firms outside the bloc face structural disadvantages that compound over time. Procurement cycles last decades. If British defense firms are locked out of European contracts now, the gap widens with each passing year. The industrial base erodes.

"Global Britain" was the slogan after Brexit, a vision of nimble bilateral relationships unconstrained by Brussels bureaucracy. The reality is that global influence requires either hard power or bloc membership. Britain has neither the military budget for the former nor the political will for the latter.

Canada's pivot is instructive. Facing similar pressure from Washington, Carney diversified, joining SAFE, negotiating with Beijing, building horizontal coalitions with other middle powers. Britain has done none of this. It refused the Board of Peace on principle but hasn't found an alternative structure to join on pragmatism.

Principles without alternatives is just isolation. The UK is learning what it means to be a middle power without a coalition, morally opposed to the new American order but structurally excluded from the European one.